Warm, marginally moist, and unstable air will continue to lead to the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with increasing likelihood of storms tomorrow afternoon through Thursday morning as an upper-level low over the California Coast shifts eastward, opens, and moves northeastward into Utah. The low will destabilize and lift a weakly unstable airmass, triggering scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms today are drifting slowly to the north or northeast at 5-10 mph, but will increase to 20-25 mph on Wednesday afternoon – Thursday morning as an upper-level subtropical jet core shifts across the state. The added vertical shear provided by the jet core will create a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms.
Expect breezy conditions on Thursday and drier, cooler conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is another slight possibility for showers or thunderstorms Sunday night to Monday night as long-range forecasts are indicating subtropical moisture temporarily moving back across the state in association with tropical cyclone activity along the West Coast of Mexico this weekend.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast